A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
